But How Did You Know To Use THAT Template for This Game?

Well, in the general, it's not really a question of knowing; there is no "right"—or "wrong"—template to use. Only perhaps a "more efficient" and a "less efficient."

My decisions in every game are informed by repetitive practice aimed specifically at pattern-intelligence, and I thought "Señor Danger [which is what I call myself in moments like these], I think this is the most appropriate template here."

You are now in the beginning stages of that repetitive practice. Keep watching, keep working according to your study plan, and pay attention to the choices you make. Which choices work for you—and which don't—will inform your future choices, based on your experience (and—thanks to your Theory videos—on my experience!).